Mavericks Alert Guide

California, USA · part of the Mavericks spot guide

Because 46237 sits about 35 kilometres up the coast and reads the same swell, a live-observation alert confirms the swell is actually on the reef and avoids forecast false alarms — while a companion forecast alert buys the travel lead time that a multi-day North Pacific transit demands.

The forecaster's checklist

1. 1.Track a deep North Pacific / Aleutian low (or an autumn recurving typhoon) with a long fetch aimed down the WNW great-circle toward Central California.
2. 2.Watch period, not just height — 16–18-second (ideally 18–25) forerunners on the outer-coast buoys show up days ahead of the swell.
3. 3.Use the buoy lead time: once the deep offshore buoys and Point Reyes light up with long-period WNW energy, Mavericks is roughly half a day to a day behind, and 46237 (SF Bar) confirms arrival.
4. 4.Confirm the direction window is 265–320° (best near 290°); south and southwest swells do not focus on the ramp.
5. 5.Separate a real day from a fake one: too small or too short-period and the reef won’t focus; big but onshore-and-stormy and it just crumbles. Real Mavericks is a large long-period WNW swell arriving behind the front with a light offshore morning wind.

Local winds & tide

Best wind: E–NE offshore (dawn glass before the afternoon sea-breeze) — from 45° to 110° (NE–ESE).

The reef holds through much of the tide but is sensitive at the extremes — big lows sit shallow and heavy over the ledge, king tides add water. Many favor a mid tide; play the swell first and the tide second.

Dial it in