PierMonkey

Lance's Right (HTs) Alert Guide

Mentawai Islands, Indonesia · part of the Lance's Right (HTs) spot guide

Lance’s Right is forecast-only — no buoy within roughly 1,900 km — so this is a model-swell alert, and the height below is an open-ocean reading the reef amplifies on the face.

The forecaster's checklist

  1. 1.Want swell from the southwest to south-southwest (about 205–240°) for the best wrap and amplification; wider west still works, less clean.
  2. 2.Look for period around 12 seconds or more — long-period groundswell gives the refraction and the push.
  3. 3.Open-ocean height around 4 feet links the sections; roughly 6-to-9 feet is prime and world-class; 12-foot-plus is maxing and expert-only.
  4. 4.Ride mid-to-high or a rising tide for margin over the reef; dead low bares the sharp inside shelf.
  5. 5.Surf early on a light east-to-southeast or dawn-calm wind — expect it to deteriorate through mid-morning as the sea breeze fills.

Local winds & tide

Best wind: E–SE offshore (dawn-calm best) — from 45° to 160° (NE–SSE).

Strongly tide-sensitive despite no in-app tide series; mid-to-high or a rising tide is the safe classic setting, and dead low over the flat inside shelf is expert-only.

Dial it in

The dial-up: alert settings that catch it

When ALL of these line up in the 5-day forecast window, this spot is turning on.

NNNENEENEEESESESSESSSWSWWSWWWNWNWNNWswell window205°→320°best ~220°
Open-ocean swell height
≥ 4 ft
Swell period
≥ 12 s
Swell direction (from)
205°–320° (SSW–NW)
Wind direction (from)
45°–160° (NE–SSE)
No representative buoy on this coast — read these numbers against the 16-day spot forecast instead.
Researched from published surf journalism, oceanographic references and chart data; figures are approximate and confidence-checked. Updated 2026-07-06.