Padang Padang Alert Guide

Bali, Indonesia · part of the Padang Padang spot guide

Padang is forecast-only — no representative buoy within thousands of km — so this is a model-swell alert, and the size gate is set high because it is a threshold wave. The height below is open-ocean, not the breaking face, which amplifies over the shallow reef.

The forecaster's checklist

1. 1.First, is there size? Long-period (12 seconds or more, ideally 14-to-16) southwest groundswell with open-ocean height around five feet or better — below that, do not bother, it is a threshold wave.
2. 2.Want the swell from the south-to-southwest band (about 180–225°) within the wider window; a more southerly angle lines up the sections.
3. 3.Confirm it is groundswell, not wind swell — short-period at the same height will not barrel.
4. 4.Score a southeast or light east trade offshore; an onshore west-northwest is a pass.
5. 5.Time the tide manually against a Bali chart — mid tide on the push is the classic combo, dead low is dangerously shallow and dead high goes fat.

Local winds & tide

Best wind: E–SE offshore (dry-season trades) — from 90° to 160° (E–SSE).

Tide-critical though no tide series is modelled: best mid tide on the push, with enough water to cover the reef; low goes dangerously shallow (near-dry on the end section) and high goes fat and loses shape.

Dial it in