Merewether Beach Alert Guide
Newcastle, NSW, Australia · part of the Merewether Beach spot guide
Merewether is forecast-only — the nearest NOAA stations are deep-ocean tsunami buoys well over 1,500 km away — so the alert runs on the GFS-Wave model and the height below is an open-ocean reading. The regional cross-checks are the NSW Sydney waverider, about 97 km south, and Crowdy Head, 163 km north. Southerly swell wraps in smaller than the model number; east-south-east arrives near full size.
The forecaster's checklist
- 1.Watch for a Tasman low or East Coast Low off the NSW coast — fast and big, arriving in half a day — or a polar low south of the Tasman two days out for long-period south groundswell.
- 2.Want swell from the south-east to south-south-east, 120–170° best, with anything from 85 to 190° reaching the point; north-east swell goes to Dixon Park instead.
- 3.Look for 10 seconds and up; the point ropes properly from about 12.
- 4.Score a west-to-north-west offshore — north-west mornings in the shoulder seasons, west and south-west through winter — before the north-east sea breeze fills in.
- 5.Read the model as open-ocean: a straight south swell shows about half to two-thirds of that on the reef, an east-south-east swell nearly all of it. Surf Ladies on the run-out tide; above six feet the action moves to Third Reef.
Local winds & tide
Best wind: W–NW offshore — from 240° to 330° (WSW–NNW).
Semidiurnal, about 1.3 m typical and up to 2 m on springs. Ladies is best on a falling tide; the inside shelf only rides on very high tides and small swells, and the Pogo’s banks punch harder on the low.
Dial it in
The dial-up: alert settings that catch it
When ALL of these line up in the 5-day forecast window, this spot is turning on.
- Open-ocean swell height
- ≥ 3 ft
- Swell period
- ≥ 10 s
- Swell direction (from)
- 85°–190° (E–S)
- Wind direction (from)
- 240°–330° (WSW–NNW)